Analysing the trend over time of antibiotic consumption in the community: a tutorial on the detection of common change-points

Abstract Objectives This tutorial describes and illustrates statistical methods to detect time trends possibly including abrupt changes (referred as change-points) in the consumption of antibiotics community. Methods For period 1997–2017, data on antibacterials for systemic use (ATC group J01) community, aggregated at level active substance, were collected using WHO ATC/DDD methodology expressed DDD (ATC/DDD index 2019) per 1000 inhabitants day. Trends over presence common change-points studied through a set non-linear mixed models. Results After thorough description models used assess trend herein, was applied 25 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries. The best fit obtained model two change-points: one first quarter 2004 last 2008. Conclusions Allowing inclusion improved fit. Individual countries investigating their antibiotic pattern can this analyse country data.